Climate Change as Simulated by the NCAR CCSM

Introduction This animation depicts global surface warming as simulated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), version three. It shows the temperature anomalies relative to the end of the 19th century, both over the entire globe and as a global average.The model shows the temporary cooling effects during the 5 major volcanic eruptions of this time period, and then the model's estimates of warming under the different scenarios; Commitment (no changes in greenhouse gasses relitive to the year 2000), B1 (CO2 level stabilizes at 550 ppm), A1B (CO2 stabilizes at 720 ppm) and A2 (CO2 increases to 840 ppm by the year 2100). The Research Effort This simulation is one of many using the CCSM for the fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It was a large effort sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy. The period shown is from 1870 to 2100. The red shading around the global average within the graph depicts the spread of five separate model experiments. The colors within the animation above the graph depict the temperature anomalies, blue being cooler and red being warmer.



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